44% of likely voters define themselves as secular, 24% traditional (masorti), 13% Orthodox (dati), 8% ultra-Orthodox (haredi), and 10% non-Jewish, according to the most detailed poll conducted by TRI 202 for Times of Israel.
Self-described traditional voters are the
Likud-Beitenu’s strongest bloc; Orthodox voters are the strongest voting bloc
for the Jewish Home party, and ultra-Orthodox voters are currently in Shas or United Torah Judaism's camp.
Voting Patterns:
-Secular voters: 40% remain
undecided, 20% vote Labor, 17% vote Likud-Be1tenu, 9% Yesh Atid, 4%
Meretz, 3% Hatnu'a, and 2% Jewish Home.
-Traditional voters: 36%
undecided, 31% Likud-Beitenu, 7% Jewish Home, 5% Labor, 5% Yesh Atid, 4%
Hatnua, 3% Shas.
-Orthodox voters: 25% undecided, 41% Jewish Home, 19% Likud-Beitenu, 6% Shas, and 2% UTJ.
-Ultra-Orthodox voters: 74% vote for either Shas or United Torah Judaism.
Ethnic heritage:
-64% of Ashkenazi voters self-describing as secular.
Sephardi/Mizrahi voters describe themselves as more religiously
observant, with 42% saying they are traditional.
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-The Ashkenazi vote is marked by a large
undecided component, with 38% currently saying they are undecided. Labor
and Likud-Beitenu receive similar support among Ashkenazim, at 14% and
13% respectively.
-Sephardi and Mizrahi voters lean heavily toward
Likud-Beitenu (30%) and Shas (12%), while 32% remain undecided.
-A whopping 80% of Shas voters
self-identify as Sephardi/Mizrahi, while only 5% identify as Ashkenazi.
-89% of United Torah Judaism voters identify as
Ashkenazi, while just 3% identify as Sephardi/Mizrahi.
- Likud-Beitenu support is driven by Sephardi/Mizrahi voters, with 58% of
the allied Likud-Beitenu voters identifying as Sephardi/Mizrahi and just
26% as Ashkenazi.
