Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Traditional Jews Vote Likud-Beitenu; Orthodox Vote Bennett

44% of likely voters define themselves as secular, 24% traditional (masorti), 13% Orthodox (dati), 8% ultra-Orthodox (haredi), and 10% non-Jewish, according to the most detailed poll conducted by TRI 202 for Times of Israel. 

Self-described traditional voters are the Likud-Beitenu’s strongest bloc; Orthodox voters are the strongest voting bloc for the Jewish Home party, and ultra-Orthodox voters are currently in Shas or United Torah Judaism's camp.

Voting Patterns:

-Secular voters: 40% remain undecided, 20% vote Labor, 17% vote Likud-Be1tenu, 9% Yesh Atid, 4% Meretz, 3% Hatnu'a, and 2% Jewish Home.

-Traditional voters: 36% undecided, 31% Likud-Beitenu, 7% Jewish Home, 5% Labor, 5% Yesh Atid, 4% Hatnua, 3% Shas.

-Orthodox voters: 25% undecided, 41%  Jewish Home, 19% Likud-Beitenu, 6% Shas, and 2% UTJ.

-Ultra-Orthodox voters: 74% vote for either Shas or United Torah Judaism. 

Ethnic heritage:

-64% of Ashkenazi voters self-describing as secular. Sephardi/Mizrahi voters describe themselves as more religiously observant, with 42% saying they are traditional. 

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-The Ashkenazi vote is marked by a large undecided component, with 38% currently saying they are undecided. Labor and Likud-Beitenu receive similar support among Ashkenazim, at 14% and 13% respectively. 

-Sephardi and Mizrahi voters lean heavily toward Likud-Beitenu (30%) and Shas (12%), while 32% remain undecided.

-A whopping 80% of Shas voters self-identify as Sephardi/Mizrahi, while only 5% identify as Ashkenazi. 

-89% of United Torah Judaism voters identify as Ashkenazi, while just 3% identify as Sephardi/Mizrahi.

- Likud-Beitenu support is driven by Sephardi/Mizrahi voters, with 58% of the allied Likud-Beitenu voters identifying as Sephardi/Mizrahi and just 26% as Ashkenazi.