Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Breakdown: Where My Accurate Prediction Went Wrong

In my Sunday prediction I dared to predict 36 seats for Likud Beitenu and 14 for Bennett, which was based on raw 'public known' data - noting "not taking in account last minute surprises or a sudden flock of voters from side to side" - and is to be proven pretty accurate based on the official election results.

While I predicted the exact number of seats for Labor (15)  Kadima and Livni's seats combined (8), Meretz [more or less] (5) Shas [more or less] (11), we did not see the rise of UTJ (based on natural growth or motivation) (5) compared to the actual number of 7 seats, the poor showing of the Bayit Yehudi (14) compared to 11 seats.

Where I went missing was that the undecided - Likud and Yisrael Beitenu's 2009 voters - would flock to Lapid, receiving 6 additional seats than what I predicted (13), making up the surprised number of 19 seats.
I did see the momentum moving towards his side, adding additional 2 seats to what the final polls projected, indicating that "Labor's support has diminished since Shelly Yechimovich had mistakenly tapped herself to the role of a premier candidate, losing at least 15% of her support to the Meretz from her left, and an additional 20% to Tzipi Livni from the center, while Yair Lapid has managed to slowly climb up as the only rational center oriented party that is fairly viewed as representing the middle class seeking solutions."

Thus, I concluded that "If we take in count, Lapid's momentum and Labor's traditional base of support, it is fair to predict that Labor will get 15-16 seats, while Yesh Atid, the real surprise of the elections, with 12-13 seats."

If we take a close look at the final number of votes all the parties got in 2013, compared to the 2009 vote, it is fair to say that Labor and Meretz each picked up 1.6% respectfully from Kadima's 2009 voters base, while Livni and Kadima combined remained with a mere 7.11% share of the support they received in 2009, which was 22.5% share of the vote. That leaves the bigger chunk of that vote - around 10% - that went to Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid Party. 

According to Dahaf Institute's exit poll, 50% of Yesh Atid's support came from the right. That explains the dramatic shift from from 68 projected seats to 61 seats, while 7 seats basically crossed the bloc over to Lapid, something I and others didn't see coming.

Bennett, at the end of the day managed to siphon only 4% support from the Likud, while the remaining voters, accumulating to 6 seats, didn't return home as foretasted but rather moved in the very last minute from the Likud Beitenu over to Lapid.