Sunday, January 6, 2013

Israel Nate Silver's Prediction: Unless Likud Grows, Chance of a Likud-Right-Religious Government is at 99%

Two Israeli bloggers, Dr. Ely Kovetz, a Tel Aviv University physicist, and architect Dan Marcus write an election forecast blog called 'Batel Be-Shishim' in which they try to make scientifically-based predictions – that's Israel's Nate Silver style attempt at making predictions.

Rosner's Domain translated their prediction in English: Kovetz-Marcus graph – dividing the blocs into parties and projected mandates. This graph was updated on January 5, according to polls taken in the days prior:

The only viable option that remains for Netanyahu is the Right-wing/Religious bloc with an additional party from the center, either Livni or Lapid, in which he would need to measure his steps in not foot dragging the peace process, but also not running too fast, amid pressure from the right.

Therefore, based on the poll results, the Batel B'shishim Bloggers conclude that the most obvious outcome , not necessarily the most preferable, would be a Likud led Right-Religious coalition. 

According to the Israel Nate Silver's prediction, the chance given that there will be a coalition government after the elections made out from The Likud Beitene-Bayit Yehudi-Shas-UTJ is at: 99.40% 

The only remaining option, which remains unlikely, unless some change their mind based on the results, would be a coalition government by Likud Beitenu-Labor Party-Hatnu'a (the movement by Livni), in which the chance of a center-left Unity government would stand at 87.41% .

In conclusion: Netanyahu and his campaign surrogates are right to argue that the only path to a stable coalition is more power given to the Likud-Beitenu list – the main building block of the next coalition. As of now, either Israeli voters don't seem convinced, or they they feel that the set of choices they have been offered in this round is far from satisfactory, and would like to have another chance at bettering their ruling majority in the near future.