If the election were held Tuesday, the Likud Beitenu would win only 34 projected seats, down one from the previous poll, according to the latest poll conducted for Haaretz by Dialog under the supervision of Prof. Camil Fuchs. Labor's situation is similar, with respondents giving the party one less seat than the last poll, for a total of 16. While the remaining parties support remains steady, the Bayit Yehudi party's support continues to soar, chalking up a projected 14 seats.
The biggest loser in this poll is Shas, which lost two seats since the last poll, which Haaretz and political pundits say the slide may be the result of the ethnic-centered campaign crafted by Shas co-leader Aryeh Deri, and the comments he made about "the Russians and the whites" in Likud Beitenu.
Tzipi Livni's Hatnu'a party and Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid are both holding steady, at 10 and nine seats respectively, but their situation is very fragile. According to the poll, 40 percent of Livni's supporters are vacillating between her and Lapid or other parties. And 50 percent of Lapid's potential voters are trying to decide between him and other parties. The poll also shows that 25% of the voters Kadima needs to overcome the threshold of 2 seats are considering voting for Likud Beitenu, and another quarter say they are undecided.
The poll predicts that the three Arab parties - Balad, United Arab List-Ta'al and Hadash - will each have four seats in the next Knesset, one more than their combined total now. The same foolish move has been made in every election in recent years.
Overall, the Right/Religious bloc has a 67 seat majority, including Otzma L'Yisrael's two seats, while the Center-Left-Arab bloc number 53 seats.