31 percent of likely voters, including 23% of right wing voters remain undecided, tow week before the Knesset election on Jan. 22, an exclusive and detailed poll conducted exclusively
for The Times of Israel by TRI-Strategic Research (Dec.25-Jan. 2).
The poll conducted by Stephan Miller, cited by Campaigns and Elections magazine in 2008 as “James Carville’s protege, questioned a relatively large sample of 803 likely voters — as opposed to the Hebrew media’s norm of 500 eligible voters. 10% of the survey were conducted by cellphone, and another 10% were conducted in Arabic, which grants it more credibility. Hence, since it was done a week ago it may not take in count the recent developments over the weekend, which may result in undecided voters tilting towards Likud Beitenu on the right and Labor - Yesh Atid on the left.
The poll conducted by Stephan Miller, cited by Campaigns and Elections magazine in 2008 as “James Carville’s protege, questioned a relatively large sample of 803 likely voters — as opposed to the Hebrew media’s norm of 500 eligible voters. 10% of the survey were conducted by cellphone, and another 10% were conducted in Arabic, which grants it more credibility. Hence, since it was done a week ago it may not take in count the recent developments over the weekend, which may result in undecided voters tilting towards Likud Beitenu on the right and Labor - Yesh Atid on the left.
The poll shows the Likud-Beitenu joint list at
34 seats after the undecideds have been factored in on a proportionate
basis, Shelly Yechimovich’s Labor Party rising to 21,the Bayit Yehudi (Jewish
Home) at 15, Yesh Atid at 11 projected seats and a falling Hatnu'a party under Tzipi Livni with only 5 seats.
Deeper
analysis of the survey’s findings suggest that the
undecideds may not ultimately divide proportionately, and that a
slightly greater proportion of them are wavering between the various
center-left and left-wing parties, rather than between the various
right-wing parties.
Respondents were asked for whom they would
vote if elections were held today. 31% of Likely (37 seats) said that
they have yet to decide. Another 5% said they would vote for parties that
did not come close to clearing the 2% Knesset threshold — including Am
Shalem, Otzma L'Yisrael and Kadima.
Key Findings:
-38% of respondents self-identified as right-wing, compared to 36% center and 16% left.
-39% of the right intends to vote Likud-Beitenu and 18% to vote Jewish Home (with the rest divided among Shas, United Torah Judaism, and other smaller parties).
-23% of right-wing voters are undecided — the equivalent of 10 seats.
-59% of Likely voters who voted for Likud in 2009 intend to vote for
Likud-Beitenu and 10% for Jewish Home, 20% remain undecided.
-32% of those who voted for Yisrael Beytenu in 2009 intend
to vote for Likud-Beitenu. 36% remain undecided,
12% vote Labor, 8% vote Jewish Home and 8% vote Yesh Atid.
-40% of centerist voters remain undecided
(approximately 14% of likely voters, or 17 Knesset seats).
-Among centrist voters who have made up their
minds, twice as many vote Labor as do Likud-Beitenu.
-Twice as
many centrists support Likud-Beitenu as do Hatnu'a.
-Only 6% of voters who view Tzipi Livni favorably intend to vote for her Hatnu'a party.
-Only 3 respondents out of 803 (0.4%) surveyed said they would vote for Kadima.
-Kadima’s 28 seats
in the Knesset are divided today, with 41% of these voters
undecided..Labor receives
21% of former Kadima voters, Yesh Atid receives 13%, Hatnu'a gets 10% and
Likud-Beitenu 9%.
-Netanyahu and Yechimovich have almost
identical likability ratings among undecided voters.
- Among undecided voters, 35% view
the country as heading in the correct direction while 48% view it as
heading in the wrong direction.
-11% of undecided voters say they have never heard
of Naftali Bennett and a whopping 30% say they do not know whether they have a
positive or negative view of him.
- 34% of undecided voters say Netanyahu is doing an excellent or good job
while 60% say he is
-Undecided voters are more likely to
self-identify as Ashkenazi Jews, rather than Sephardi or Mizrahi Jews.
This is similar to the make-up of Labor’s voters, and very different
from the make-up of Likud-Beitenu’s voters.
The TRI survey questioned a relatively large sample of 803 likely voters — as opposed
to the Hebrew media’s norm of 500 eligible voters. Of those 803, also in
contrast to the Hebrew media norm, 10% of our surveys were conducted to
cellphones, and another 10% were conducted in Arabic. The poll has a
margin of error of +/- 3.5%, with a confidence level of 95%.
Stephan Miller, cited by Campaigns and
Elections magazine in 2008 as “James Carville’s protege,” is an
American-Israeli public opinion research analyst and communications
strategist, and a former adviser to Jerusalem Mayor Nir Barkat, who has
worked on campaigns in eight countries across three continents.
