Monday, November 7, 2011

JFNAGA LIVE BLOG Day 2 #2: Israel naviagting the new Middle East

Breakout session: Navigating the new middle east with @kampeas @mozgovaya @davidmakovsky and @Joyce_Karam #arabspring #Israel.

@DavidMakovsky: how does #Israel relate to arabspring, its focus is mainly on #Egypt...

@DavidMakovsky: on #Syria, used 2 be saying better devil known,than unknown, now Israel sees it as "Devil you know is a devil".

@DavidMakovsky: Israel is focused on regimes, cuz govts make wars (or peace), the US post 9/11 is focused on outreach to Arab ppl

@DavidMakovsky:I find the #Egypt issue is still the top sensitive issue that divided the US-Israel relationships,focus on Arab world

@DavidMakovsky: in pvt convo's this is the most sensitive issue between the two admin, for Israel its the gov't issue,4 US only ppl

@DavidMakovsky: peace with egypt is crucial in preventing devote and spending 10% GNP, instead of 40% on defense and military...

@DavidMakovsky: 4 egpyt military peace is critical, israel best relationships in mideast has been w/ Arab military and intelligence

@DavidMakovsky:4 Egypt 2 abrogate peace,it means it spare prts in military functions is in Q, therefore peace is critical 4 military

@DavidMakovsky: we entering in new period, that requires iSrael 2 navigate..

@mozgovaya: most important issue today for israelis is today #Iran... It happens after few months that Iran was almost forgotten

@mozgovaya: the debate is on details how the day after will look, if #Israel might strike,or pilots hanged in Iran if captured..

@mozgovaya: I have a feeling that the attn this conflict is getting, is not doing good 4 a Mideast settlement..

@mozgovaya: israel is a convenient scapegoat in region, so if #Arabspring might not develop as expected, hate 4 israel will emerge

@mozgovaya: we r delaying solutions for the urgent problems, due to #arabspring...

@mozgovaya:BB gov't is in strongest position,but has no vision 4 future of mideast,or relationship w/US, that's a problematic issue

@Joyce_Karam working for al Hayat, NYT:Mideast last year was abt John Kerry's visit to Syria,#Gaddafi pickin more pics of Condi Rice

@Joyce_Karam: This is not a Muslim Brotherhood spring in Egypt, due to various Islamic groups

@Joyce_Karam: non violent youthful movements on st determend to pursue a Democratic vision is significant,diff than seen in past

@Joyce_Karam:4 US-Israel,time of viewing Arab World thru one leader is over,time 2 reach out 2 people,as long they renounce violence

@Joyce_Karam: sustainable policies in mideast must be done thru the people, not the rulers

@DavidMakovsky on US mediation in Mideast: Obama has hit the pause button,not the reset button,done anuf, time 2 turn over 2 Quartet

@DavidMakovsky: the policy diff's are much narrower. While the politics are much wider, in relationship with the US

@mozgovaya on #Iran strike:BB was mad on leak,in order 2 keep deterrence, Iran must believe a strike in on table,the Q is motivation

@mozgovaya:is a strike probable? as HermanCain like 2 say I dnt have all the intelligence, but if US opposes it it'll B catastrophic

@DavidMokavsky: BB n Barak sit alone every day, as IAEA report is published,they were looking 2 keep issue high up 2 get max attn

@DavidMakovsky: BB n Barak sit alone every day, as IAEA report is published,they were looking 2 keep issue high up, get max attn,

@DavidMakovsky: #Netanyahu n' Barak want 2 keep Iran/Strike issue on high profile,so the US and World won't ignore it on daily basis

Q. How come the Iranian ppl have not joined #arabspring? @Joyce_Karam: they tried in '09 w/no luck, it might happen if #Assad falls.

@Joyce_Karam: Hamas is much more comfortable w/ elite regime in #Egypt, they r distancing themselves from Iran.

@Joyce_Karam: Best thing BB could give Hamas n' Hezbollah is a strike on Iran, if he was thinking strategicly he wud not strike now

@DavidMakovsky on Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt: the lid is off the pot, and we don't know that when it starts to boil where it wud go

@DavidMakovsky on Muslim Brotherhood: Things get hijacked in Mideast, a small group can decide on state within state to destroy it.

@DavidMakovsky: we hope that the Democrats of #arabspring emerge, but its a long hall, in short term it is extremely turbulent..

@DavidMakovsky: fear is that the Muslim BrotherHood decides 2 follow Hezbollah 2 act as militant group and hijack #Egypt..

@DavidMakovsky on #arabspring: as Hopeful we are, we should be watchful...

@DavidMakovsky on Israel/Turkey: Israel made wrong call 2 not apologize, #Netanyahu looked over right shoulder 2 Lieberman,n' folded

@DavidMakovsky: #Israel's decision not to apologize to Turkey was political, BB is looking forward to election fight w/ Lieberman

@DavidMakovsky on Turkey: if relationship won't go bk 100%,but go bk to 30%- it's still critical, BB was wrong to ignore Sec. chiefs

@DavidMakovsky: why Israelis don't care about peace? The israeli have tried everything and it didn't work, its just hope

@DavidMakovsky: Israelis fear is not land for peace but their own existence, and the Palestinians must respond to Israelis gut fear.