Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Poll: Social party could win 20 seats, Does not change Right/left political map

(via Jpost and Globes).A Smith Research poll taken for The Jerusalem Post and Globes finds that a new socioeconomic party led by the current leaders of the housing protests could win as many as 20 seats if elections were held now,

When only the parties currently represented in the Knesset were given as choices, the results were similar to the makeup of the current Knesset, except that Likud would win one more mandate (28) than Kadima (27), rather than Kadima's present one-seat advantage.

But when a new socioeconomic party was included as a choice, the new party captured 4-5 seats from Opposition part Kadima, 2-3 from ruling party - Likud, 2-3 from Labor, and Meretz, as well as floating voters. The new party does not take mandates away from Arab, religious or right-wing parties, whose supporters have not endorsed the protests.

Asked whether the next Knesset elections will be held  on or advanced from its current date of October 22 2013 due to the protests and the expected United Nations General Assembly vote on a Palestinian state next month, 50% believe it will be held on time, while only 29% think it might lead to earlier elections, 21% did not have an opinion.

Among Likud voters, 60% said the election would be held on time while 25% thought otherwise. Even among Kadima voters 47-40 believe the elections would be held on time.

When asked about their economic views, 47% said they wanted more governmental intervention in the economy and personal welfare, while 37% preferred to let market forces take their course with minimal governmental intervention. Sixteen percent did not express an opinion.

The poll also provided insight into the public's attitudes toward the tent protest movement and how it feels the protesters should go about achieving their goals.

45% said the protesters should compromise and  negotiate with the government to try to obtain their demands, 29% said the demonstrations should go on in their current format, and 9% said the protesters should become more political, try to bring down the government, and run for the next Knesset.