(Aluf Benn/Haaretz).This summer's most important news item, though it hasn't been in the headlines or sparked stormy media or Knesset debates, is the quiet on the security front. It has been 10 years since things were so peaceful: quiet in the north, quiet in the south, no terror attacks. Military operations logbooks daily report that there is "Nothing to report."
This year, all is quiet on the (Middle) Eastern front. The last time things were so quiet security-wise was during the "summer of hope," after Ehud Barak's election as prime minister in May 1999. Since then, we suffered blood, tears, terror and rocket attacks, acts of war and preparations for a new round of fighting.
There are of course security alerts that herald rising tensions in Lebanon or Palestinian threats to renew the intifada, but few people pay them any mind. Gilad Shalit is still being held hostage, yet the government is not disturbed and public pressure for repatriation is dying down.
Benjamin Netanyahu takes credit for the quiet. He warns that any rocket fire - whether in the form of "a barrage, sporadic firing, or one projectile" - will be met with a tough response, and the enemy is afraid. During Netanyahu's earlier tenure as premier, the terror level also dropped, rising again when he left office. Some argue that the Arab world, enjoying U.S. President Barack Obama's overtures, expects Washington to banish Israel from the territories and is reluctant to spoil the party with another round of violence. Or, perhaps the quiet can be attributed to Israel's deterrent power, restored after Operation Cast Lead. Maybe the answer is: all of the above.
Another explanation: Israel is cooling down secondary fronts while preparing for an anticipated war with Iran. It is securing its flanks before the assault on Iran's nuclear installations, either at year's end or next spring. This assessment dovetails with Netanyahu's strategy and thinking, according to which Iran heads Israel's priority list. However, that thesis does not explain the other side's behavior. Why are Iran and its allies maintaining silence, instead of actively trying to thwart Israel's preparations for the attack?
Whatever the reason - even without striking a peace agreement with the Palestinians or making territorial concessions - Israel is experiencing a period of zero terror and rocket attacks, while continuing to expand settlement in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The intifada, suicide bombings and Qassam attacks all spelled defeat for the Palestinians. Liberated from Israel's presence, Gaza is still besieged and isolated, while Israel has pulverized "resistance" in the West Bank. A balance of deterrence - Israel's air force versus the Islamists' rockets - exists in the north with Hezbollah and the south with Hamas. The separation of Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan is stable, after some sticky episodes during Ehud Olmert's premiership, and Israel and the Fatah government in Ramallah are cooperating in security and economic fields.
However, we must be alert. The present quiet is conditional; at any moment, violence could erupt again. This has happened so often that one could safely bet on another round of fighting at some point. Nonetheless, it would be wrong to ignore the diplomatic implications of the current quiet. First, at the leadership level: Netanyahu's government can make decisions without the kind of pressure experienced by the regime of his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, and can turn its attention calmly to internal affairs. So far, Netanyahu has not had to tackle urgent security crises or hold emergency cabinet sessions. He has enough time to prepare for meetings with U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell, and to undertake defensive measures against coalition shenanigans.
This year, all is quiet on the (Middle) Eastern front. The last time things were so quiet security-wise was during the "summer of hope," after Ehud Barak's election as prime minister in May 1999. Since then, we suffered blood, tears, terror and rocket attacks, acts of war and preparations for a new round of fighting.
There are of course security alerts that herald rising tensions in Lebanon or Palestinian threats to renew the intifada, but few people pay them any mind. Gilad Shalit is still being held hostage, yet the government is not disturbed and public pressure for repatriation is dying down.
Benjamin Netanyahu takes credit for the quiet. He warns that any rocket fire - whether in the form of "a barrage, sporadic firing, or one projectile" - will be met with a tough response, and the enemy is afraid. During Netanyahu's earlier tenure as premier, the terror level also dropped, rising again when he left office. Some argue that the Arab world, enjoying U.S. President Barack Obama's overtures, expects Washington to banish Israel from the territories and is reluctant to spoil the party with another round of violence. Or, perhaps the quiet can be attributed to Israel's deterrent power, restored after Operation Cast Lead. Maybe the answer is: all of the above.
Another explanation: Israel is cooling down secondary fronts while preparing for an anticipated war with Iran. It is securing its flanks before the assault on Iran's nuclear installations, either at year's end or next spring. This assessment dovetails with Netanyahu's strategy and thinking, according to which Iran heads Israel's priority list. However, that thesis does not explain the other side's behavior. Why are Iran and its allies maintaining silence, instead of actively trying to thwart Israel's preparations for the attack?
Whatever the reason - even without striking a peace agreement with the Palestinians or making territorial concessions - Israel is experiencing a period of zero terror and rocket attacks, while continuing to expand settlement in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The intifada, suicide bombings and Qassam attacks all spelled defeat for the Palestinians. Liberated from Israel's presence, Gaza is still besieged and isolated, while Israel has pulverized "resistance" in the West Bank. A balance of deterrence - Israel's air force versus the Islamists' rockets - exists in the north with Hezbollah and the south with Hamas. The separation of Israeli and Syrian forces on the Golan is stable, after some sticky episodes during Ehud Olmert's premiership, and Israel and the Fatah government in Ramallah are cooperating in security and economic fields.
However, we must be alert. The present quiet is conditional; at any moment, violence could erupt again. This has happened so often that one could safely bet on another round of fighting at some point. Nonetheless, it would be wrong to ignore the diplomatic implications of the current quiet. First, at the leadership level: Netanyahu's government can make decisions without the kind of pressure experienced by the regime of his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, and can turn its attention calmly to internal affairs. So far, Netanyahu has not had to tackle urgent security crises or hold emergency cabinet sessions. He has enough time to prepare for meetings with U.S. Middle East envoy George Mitchell, and to undertake defensive measures against coalition shenanigans.
