(Via IMRA). Despite hundreds of broadcast hours and countless column inches in the Israeli media of warnings from Israeli opinion makers urging Israel to rush and give the Palestinians whatever it takes to make a deal - Only a minority of the Jewish public (28%) agrees with the position that the Middle Eastern upheavals will create new opportunities and, hence, that Israel should make a new effort to reach a regional peace. The overwhelming majority (70%) accepts the position that the situation at the moment is unclear, and therefore it is better for Israel to remain passive and not do anything, all this according to the Tel Aviv University and the Israel Democracy Institute "Peace index" survey.
Summary of the Findings
To what extent do the popular struggles currently being waged in the Arab countries interest the citizens of Israel? The popular struggles are definitely of interest to them. Seventy-nine percent of the Israeli Jewish public and 74% of the Israeli Arab public say these struggles interest them or even strongly interest them.
A majority of the Jewish public (57%) sees low chances of an uprising of Palestinians in the West Bank that would be similar to the popular struggles in the Arab countries. A more solid majority (68%) sees low chances of a similar uprising among Israeli Arab citizens. The same pattern of opinion was found in the Israeli Arab sector: 68% view the chances of an uprising in the West Bank as low, and a very large majority (79%) see the chances of such an uprising within Israel as low.
Are the popular, anti-regime struggles in the Arab countries good or bad for the peoples of the region? A majority of the Jewish public (52%) views these struggles as positive for the peoples of the Middle East. The Arab public’s assessment is even more positive, with 65% seeing these struggles that way.
And from Israel’s standpoint? Here, too, the prevailing tendency in the Jewish public (47%) is to perceive the recent developments in the Arab world as positive, although 30% of Jewish respondents see them in a negative light and close to one-fourth do not know. The Arab public’s views on this question tend to be more positive: 55.5% see the developments as positive for Israel and 34% as negative (the rest do not know).
And what about the likely effect of the events in the Arab world on the chances for peace? The prevailing view in the Jewish public (38%) is that the events in the Arab world will have no effect, for good or bad, on the peace process in the foreseeable future. At the same time, the rate of those who believe the events will have a positive effect (22.5%) is slightly lower than the rate of those who think that the effect will be negative (27.3%), if there is any effect at all. A different distribution of opinion was found among the Arab public: the prevailing view (48%) is that the regional developments will positively affect the chances for peace, while 31% foresee a negative effect. Only 18% think the events in the region will have no effect on the peace issue at all.
Should Israel take an initiative or remain passive? Only a minority of the Jewish public (28%) agrees with the position that the Middle Eastern upheavals will create new opportunities and, hence, that Israel should make a new effort to reach a regional peace. The overwhelming majority (70%) accepts the position that the situation at the moment is unclear, and therefore it is better for Israel to remain passive and not do anything.
Is the Western countries’ intervention in Libya good or bad? A slim majority (52%) of the Jewish Israelis favors the intervention that sided with the rebels in Libya, but a considerable minority (43%) takes the opposite stance. The trend among Israeli Arabs is similar, but the gap between supporters (62%) and opponents (34%) is larger.
And what are the chances of similar Western intervention in the West Bank? An overwhelming majority (75%) of the Jewish public sees the chances for Western intervention in the event of an uprising of Palestinians in the West Bank in which the IDF deploys troops and uses force against the local population as low. In the Arab public as well, a majority, though smaller (59%), sees the chances of this as low.
And what about Western pressure for peace? As for the possibility that the desire to gain favor in the Arab world would lead to greater Western pressure on Israel to advance the peace process with the Palestinians, opinions are divided. Some 51.5% of Jewish Israelis see the chances for this at present as high, while 44% see it as low. Views in the Arab sector are split down the middle, with 47% assessing the chances for Western pressure on Israel as high and just about the same proportion regarding them as low.
The Negotiations Index for March, 2011
The Peace Index project includes ongoing monitoring of the Israeli public's attitudes towards peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority. The monthly Negotiation Index is comprised of two questions, one focusing on public support for peace negotiations and the other on the degree to which the public believes that such talks will actually lead to peace. The aggregated replies to these two questions are calculated, combined, and standardized on a scale of 0-100, in which 0 represents total lack of support for negotiations and lack of belief in their potential to bear fruit, and 100 represents total support for the process and belief in its potential. Each month, the Negotiations Index presents two distinct findings, one for the general Israeli population and the other for Jewish Israelis.
