(pcpsr.org via IMRA).While the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas remains as it was beforethe eruption of the Goldstone Report crisis, the majority does not blame Hamas for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or for the failure to hold national elections; indeed a majority supports the president's decision not to run in the next elections and a majority opposes holding elections before reconciliation.
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 10 and 12 December 2009. The poll was conducted after four major developments that affected public perception during the last four months since our last poll in the second week of August 2009: the decision by President Abbas early in this period to postpone a vote on the Goldstone Report and his subsequent decision to reverse it, Hamas's decision in October not to sign the reconciliation agreement submitted by Egypt and signed by Fateh, the Hamas decision in late October to prevent the election commission from preparing for elections in the Gaza Strip, and finally, the decision by Abbas in November not to run in the next Palestinian presidential elections.
These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 10 and 12 December 2009. The poll was conducted after four major developments that affected public perception during the last four months since our last poll in the second week of August 2009: the decision by President Abbas early in this period to postpone a vote on the Goldstone Report and his subsequent decision to reverse it, Hamas's decision in October not to sign the reconciliation agreement submitted by Egypt and signed by Fateh, the Hamas decision in late October to prevent the election commission from preparing for elections in the Gaza Strip, and finally, the decision by Abbas in November not to run in the next Palestinian presidential elections.
Main Findings:
Findings of the fourth quarter of 2009 show a limited improvement in the standing of president Mahmud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, the majority of the public does not blame Hamas for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip or for the failure to hold national elections. In fact, findings show that a majority of Palestinians blames both Fateh and Hamas together for the continued split and a majority supports Hamas's decision not to hold elections before securing reconciliation.
· 57% support Abbas's decision not to run in the next presidential elections and 36% oppose it. Findings show that the greater the desire tovote for Abbas in the next elections, the greater the opposition to his decision. A third of the public believes that Abbas's decision not to run in the next elections is the result of Israel's settlement policy and Abbas's loss of confidence in the US administration. A quarter believes the decision reflected Abbas's disillusionment with Arab support for him and his policies while 22% believe the decision was taken due to the criticism of Abbas's handling of the Goldstone affair, and 12% believe it was due to Hamas's refusal to sign the reconciliation agreement. A majority of 58% believes Abbas will withdraw his decision and will eventually run in the next elections.
· Findings show a majority of 58% supports Hamas's position that national elections can only take place after reconciliation and 39% oppose it. Among those who oppose Hamas's position, 54% support holding elections even if only in the West Bank and 34% oppose that.
· Findings show that 61% of the public believe that Fateh and Hamas together are responsible for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 17% believe that Hamas is responsible for that and 12% believe Fateh is responsible. In this regard, if Hamas wins the next elections, 48% believe this outcome would consolidate separation between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip while 19% believe it would strengthen unity. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 27% believe this would consolidate separation and 34% believe it would strengthen unity.
· If new presidential elections are held today, Abbas would receive the vote of 54% of the voters and Haniyeh would receive 38% .Abbas's popularity stands at 55% in the West Bank and 52% in the Gaza Strip while Haniyeh's popularity stands at 36% in the West Bank and 43% in the Gaza Strip. If presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 67% and the latter would receive 28% .
· If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 72% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 43% say they would vote for Fateh and 27% say they would vote for Hamas. Fateh's popularity in the West Bank stands at 41% compared to 46% in the Gaza Strip and Hamas's popularity stands at 23% in the West Bank compared to 34% in the Gaza Strip. All other factions and lists receive 14% of the vote and 17% remain undecided.
