Likud ministers are holding secret talks with Kadima's Number 2, MK Shaul Mofaz, to probe whether Mofaz would be willing to split from the opposition faction and lead a group of six other Kadima lawmakers to Likud.
This is not the first time a split in Kadima has come up. However, this time, sources in Likud say the disappointment of many senior Kadima figures over chairwoman MK Tzipi Livni's refusal to join the Netanyahu government might make the split a reality.
Senior Likud figures say that Netanyahu wants a safety net in place ahead of possible future coalition shake-ups to shore up his party in the coalition, and increase the size of his faction from 27 to 34 MKs. In addition, Likud sources say, Netanyahu will not give up his dream of splitting Kadima and is waiting for the opportunity to do so.
Likud is also quietly taking steps to make it easier for Kadima to split when the time comes. For example, on Monday Likud presented a bill to the Knesset that would allow MKs to leave their faction if one-third of the faction members wants to do so, or, if seven faction members want to do so. The bill is part of the coalition agreement.
Current law allows for a faction to split only if one-third of its members want to do so. That would mean that to split from Kadima, which has 29 seats, at least 10 MKs would have to bolt the party.
Another move to ease a possible split from Kadima is a pledge that the party's Knesset slate will continue to be elected via a party-wide primary, as it was in the last election, with no return to the situation in which the list was chosen solely by the central committee.
Likud is also considering setting aside the practice of reserving places on its Knesset list for activists from the party's various branches, which would also increase the chances of election to the list of MKs who might coming on board from Kadima.
Likud chairman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to begin preparations soon for the Likud convention, which will be asked to ratify the changes in the constit
