After a week of dramatizing the entry of a new political factor that could tilt the next election and prevent Netanyahu from winning a third term. A new poll sees Likud strengthening, Yair Lapid fading and Kadima imploding (via Globes).
A new poll by Geocartography Knowledge Ltd. finds that the Likud would win 33 Knesset seats were elections held today, while Kadima under MK Tzipi Livni would sink to 11 seats, and the Labor Party under MK Shelly Yacimovich would win 13 seats. The Likud has 27 seats in the current Knesset, Kadima has 28, and Labor has 8.
The poll found that Shas would fall to eight seats from its current 13, and Israel Beiteinu under Minister of Foreign Affairs Avigdor Lieberman could gain one seat to reach 16 seats. The Arab parties would win 11 seats.
Meretz would win four seats, one more than today; the New National Religious Party would be unchanged at three seats; United Torah Judaism would gain one seat to six seats; and the National Union would win two seats, half its current seats.
Geocartography finds that the Yair Lapid effect is fading. He would win 13 Knesset seats if elections were held today, down from 20 seats in the immediate aftermath of his announcement two weeks ago that he was entering politics.
The poll found that the big losers in Lapid's entry into politics - Kadima, Labor, Likud, and Israel Beiteinu - have regained some of their support. The poll also found that Noam Shalit's decision to run on the Labor ticket has not helped the party.
"Lapid's decline in support is natural. After the initial excitement comes the reflection, which may reflect a genuine influence of some of the negative reaction, and possibly an ebbing of the enthusiasm among potential voters after he publicly announced his ideas. After all, not everyone has read his commentary pieces in "Yediot Ahronot". Time will tell," said Geocartography co-CEO Prof. Avi Dagani.