Monday, January 24, 2011

Analysis/ Winners and losers of #Palestinepapers -The Peace Process, Palestine, Obama and Israel

There is a debate going on in the Media, and the WH weighed in on it too, if the latest Al Jazeera Palestine papers leaks are reliable, whom it harms and what an impact it may have to the peace process.

Some have suggested that it is a blow to the 2 State solution, some see it as a blow to the moderate (if there is any) Fatah Leadership weakened against the Hamas in Gaza, some see it as a way to attack Israel for not compromising or bending towards the PA generous offers, but some may see it as a wake up call to the World, to the peace promoters and to the Israeli citizens.

So here’s my take on it, as i have tried to swing with the wind of leaks but take the most out of it for Israel's advantage, if it had any until now in the Global battle for minds.

If this is proven to be an honest report, all I can say that the Palestinians, the left peace camp, the Opposition and the Mainstream Media, got exposed, the masks were removed from their face, and no make up will remove or hide the dirt splashed on their face.

PA negotiator Saeb Erekat as reported was willing to concede: French Hill, Ramat Alon, Ramat Shlomo, Gilo, Talpiot, and the Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem’s old city, all these Jewish neighborhoods that are marked as settlements, that undermine the pace process, were recognized by the PA as part of Israel in any agreement and proposed to PM Ehud Olmert as an obvious concession, hence when Netanyahu took office, these areas suddenly became an obstacle and a in middle of the road rock for the peace process, the PA demanding from Netanyahu a total freeze and the US admin setting up an ambush, bringing the relations to a new low.

Without going into specifics, because a lot of what I read seems to be shocking in my eyes, what Livni and Olmert offered, while having no mandate, and as Professor Barry Rubin brings out on his site, the truth behind these leaked documents.

So first as a starting point I would say, that If it is proven that the PA recognized E. Jlem neighborhoods as part of Israel, were willing to recognize Israel as a Jewish state, despite PM Olmert never mentioning or bringing this up ,than they cant or must not be permitted to offer less to PM Netanyahu, and therefore have no right to demand a freeze as pre condition for peace talks, this and more its about  time for the US administration in Washington, President Obama to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, at least the Jewish neighborhoods in E. Jerusalem, Just as the PA did realistically.

but here is the thing, despite their generous offer and concessions from both sides, Olmert offered even more then they expected, as of dividing the holy city of Jerusalem,Land swaps and  accepting a formal symbolic right of return for 100,000 refugees, despite that open to the heart negotiations - Peace did not happen, the #Palestinepapers prove us once again, that concessions don't advance peace, Peace can only happen if the PA will consider Israel as a legal partner, if they will recognize our historical right to this land, if they will believe not only in their sovereignty, their ability to govern , but the right for the Jews to live in their promised land, and TALK with the Israeli public representative that is the elected government of Israel, then peace may may become a little more realistic.

So its still early to determine who are the winners and losers in the long range, but as of now ther are a few Losers: 1) The Left wing peace camp and peace promoters, the Opposition Leader Kadima head Tzipi Livni  for attacking Netanyahu on the lack of progress, naming his Gov't a un Zionist govt that endangers Israel's security and existence as Jewish state, when she almost sold out all of our positions. 2) President Obama as he made the settlements the main issue in the peace process, wasted 2 years of downfalls and political blood,  that led to what Ben Smith reports in Politico, the Netanyahu Obama relations are not only low but have come to a stage of zero… and for what? For some Jewish neighborhoods that will be recognized by the Arabs as part of Israel but will still be preserved in the US as counterproductive to the US-Israel strong and strategic relationship. 3) Peace that could of given for both people, and for the future generations to come, some hope, security and prosperity.

The Winners: I think Prime Minister Netanyahu is the ultimate winner of this situation, not that everything is honey, not that the Status quo is good for Israel, but somehow I would give Netanyahu high marks as Man of the Year, that everything seems to be  falling in his favor from unexpected sources, if I only mention- The Wikileaks on Iran, the Iranian nuclear slowdown, Tony Blair strengthening his call by urging to use force to stop Iran's influence in the region, the Settlement freeze demand that Obama dropped in face of his reelection chances getting riskier and getting educated as the years pass by, Barak splitting from Labor, giving the coalition a stronger chance of surviving any political earthquakes, the Turkel inquiry findings on the flotilla and now the Palileaks that proved the world once again who wants peace and who is avoiding progress or not even considering us as a partner for peace.