(Economist)....some Western diplomats and Palestinian officials hint that Mr Abbas, with a helping hand from Arab states, is quietly poised to climb down. They say he is shelving his previous demand for a total settlement freeze and will consent to a plan to set up low-level or indirect talks, to save the Palestinian leader’s face. Mr Abbas, they say, knows he will not find a more sympathetic American president than Mr Obama, so fears frittering his time away. Moreover, the Palestinian Authority (PA), which Mr Abbas heads, depends on American cash.
Still, if Mr Abbas has indeed decided to climb down, it will be a precarious operation. After months of publicly saying he would stand firm, he would have little to show for changing his mind. Mr Netanyahu is hesitant about granting Palestinian requests for a formal “term of reference” acknowledging some of the most crucial issues, such as Jerusalem. Mr Abbas also wants Mr Mitchell to say that the city should be recognised as both states’ future capital. As if to rub salt in Palestinian wounds, Mr Netanyahu attended a tree-planting ceremony in a settlement when Mr Mitchell was still in town. By the by, the Israeli prime minister declared that any Palestinian state would have to be completely encircled by Israeli forces.
Mr Abbas, who has been notably flexible since taking on Yasser Arafat’s mantle since the old man died five years ago, has lousy cards to play. Mr Obama’s administration, perhaps overconfident, persuaded him to agree that it would demand a complete settlement freeze as the price for restarting talks. But when it backed down, Mr Abbas was embarrassingly stranded.
In any event, he seems to lack a strategy. Doubters in his own party, Fatah, as well as his bitter rivals in Hamas, the Islamist Palestinian movement that runs Gaza, are sneering at his failure to make progress and are calling for his replacement; indeed, he has already said he would resign. “For months we’ve done nothing,” says a Fatah stalwart who has sometimes been touted as a successor. “We have no elections, no reconciliation with Hamas, and no negotiations. We’re looking ridiculous.”
Should Mr Abbas dig in his heels for longer, some American intermediaries are looking at alternatives. They are airing a plan promoted by the Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, to get on with building a state that can then be presented for recognition by the UN Security Council in a couple of years. But few Palestinians would risk relying on the Security Council, where the Americans have a veto, to vote for such a state. Should the Americans and Europeans then balk, Mr Fayyad would look as silly as Mr Abbas.
A more radical suggestion, voiced by other Palestinians, is to dissolve the PA altogether and let Israel take responsibility for the occupation. But even the toughest Palestinian critics of Mr Abbas within the PA tend to be swayed by the personal benefits of the status quo. In any case, many Palestinians are enjoying the West Bank’s rising prosperity. Ramallah, their administrative capital, is bristling with new buildings, electronic and liquor shops and various spin-offs of foreign aid. Ramallah at night glitters with neon lights. Other Palestinian cities, though less flashy, also defy the world’s economic crunch.
Meanwhile, political apathy is setting in. A recent well-publicised meeting where Palestinians were to press their claims to Arab-populated East Jerusalem drew an audience of less than 50. As long as foreign donors pay the PA’s salary bill, few expect a new intifada (uprising). A former Palestinian minister laments that Mr Netanyahu was right about economic development bringing peace, at least for a while.
For those Palestinians, particularly in the rural areas and refugee camps, who are less easily seduced by the lure of the café, the authorities still resort more readily to sticks than carrots. Under the guidance of an American general, Keith Dayton, hundreds of PA security forces have fanned out across Palestinian towns, co-ordinating with Israeli forces to swat Palestinian dissent. Though human-rights groups say the torture of dissidents has dipped, the number of arrests is sharply up.
Still, if Mr Abbas has indeed decided to climb down, it will be a precarious operation. After months of publicly saying he would stand firm, he would have little to show for changing his mind. Mr Netanyahu is hesitant about granting Palestinian requests for a formal “term of reference” acknowledging some of the most crucial issues, such as Jerusalem. Mr Abbas also wants Mr Mitchell to say that the city should be recognised as both states’ future capital. As if to rub salt in Palestinian wounds, Mr Netanyahu attended a tree-planting ceremony in a settlement when Mr Mitchell was still in town. By the by, the Israeli prime minister declared that any Palestinian state would have to be completely encircled by Israeli forces.
Mr Abbas, who has been notably flexible since taking on Yasser Arafat’s mantle since the old man died five years ago, has lousy cards to play. Mr Obama’s administration, perhaps overconfident, persuaded him to agree that it would demand a complete settlement freeze as the price for restarting talks. But when it backed down, Mr Abbas was embarrassingly stranded.
In any event, he seems to lack a strategy. Doubters in his own party, Fatah, as well as his bitter rivals in Hamas, the Islamist Palestinian movement that runs Gaza, are sneering at his failure to make progress and are calling for his replacement; indeed, he has already said he would resign. “For months we’ve done nothing,” says a Fatah stalwart who has sometimes been touted as a successor. “We have no elections, no reconciliation with Hamas, and no negotiations. We’re looking ridiculous.”
Should Mr Abbas dig in his heels for longer, some American intermediaries are looking at alternatives. They are airing a plan promoted by the Palestinian prime minister, Salam Fayyad, to get on with building a state that can then be presented for recognition by the UN Security Council in a couple of years. But few Palestinians would risk relying on the Security Council, where the Americans have a veto, to vote for such a state. Should the Americans and Europeans then balk, Mr Fayyad would look as silly as Mr Abbas.
A more radical suggestion, voiced by other Palestinians, is to dissolve the PA altogether and let Israel take responsibility for the occupation. But even the toughest Palestinian critics of Mr Abbas within the PA tend to be swayed by the personal benefits of the status quo. In any case, many Palestinians are enjoying the West Bank’s rising prosperity. Ramallah, their administrative capital, is bristling with new buildings, electronic and liquor shops and various spin-offs of foreign aid. Ramallah at night glitters with neon lights. Other Palestinian cities, though less flashy, also defy the world’s economic crunch.
Meanwhile, political apathy is setting in. A recent well-publicised meeting where Palestinians were to press their claims to Arab-populated East Jerusalem drew an audience of less than 50. As long as foreign donors pay the PA’s salary bill, few expect a new intifada (uprising). A former Palestinian minister laments that Mr Netanyahu was right about economic development bringing peace, at least for a while.
For those Palestinians, particularly in the rural areas and refugee camps, who are less easily seduced by the lure of the café, the authorities still resort more readily to sticks than carrots. Under the guidance of an American general, Keith Dayton, hundreds of PA security forces have fanned out across Palestinian towns, co-ordinating with Israeli forces to swat Palestinian dissent. Though human-rights groups say the torture of dissidents has dipped, the number of arrests is sharply up.
