A "Globes"-Geocartography poll finds the right-wing block has extended its lead.
While Labor Party chairman and Minister of Defense Ehud Barak, and Kadima Party chairwoman and Minister of Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni quarrel about who deserves the credit for Operation Cast Lead in the Gaza Strip, which so far has been successful, it seems that the public is in no doubt: the winds of war are blowing the Likud's way.
A "Globes" survey, in collaboration with Geocartography, predicts sweeping victory for the Likud if the elections were to be held today, giving it 38 of the Knesset's 120 seats. The right-religious block has jumped to 68 seats. The results are a surprise considering the public mood and the polls published in the past few days, that show the Labor and Kadima parties strengthening, and the center-left block running neck and neck with the right.
Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu can be almost content, according to the survey, he has managed to repeat the success of his predecessor in the post, Ariel Sharon, under whom Likud gained 38 seats in the 2003 elections, and has even won back voters that Sharon took with him to Kadima in 2006,
The survey finds that, were the elections to be held today, Kadima would win just 22 seats. Livni, who has consistently called for action against Hamas, finds herself in an inferior position even to Leader of the Opposition Netanyahu, who is only updated on the operation, and is nota partner to it.
Anyone who thought the operation in the Gaza Strip would make the race for prime minister three sided Netanyahu-Livni-Barak has been proved wrong. The Geocartography poll is a blow to Barak, giving the Labor Party under him only 12 seats. This, it should be pointed out, is in contrast to other polls, that project 2-4 additional seats for Labor in the wake of the fighting in the south. The current poll finds that, if there is to be a three-horse race, it will be Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) chairman Avigdor Lieberman who will challenge Netanyahu and Livni for the premiership. Lieberman's party has strengthened in the first week of the military operation, and it is now projected to win 15 seats. This means that if Netanyahu wins as predicted and chooses to set up a right-wing coalition, Lieberman will be a senior figure in the government.
The ultra-orthodox religious parties have weakened considerably, with the poll showing them dropping from a total of 17 seats in the current Knesset to 12 in the next, while on the left, Meretz is failing to gain ground.
If this is the situation with Operation Cast Lead going well, it can only be imagined what sort of lead Likud will have if the operation runs into difficulties and is deemed a failure.
