(JOHN FUND-WSJ)..."Under pressure, the Democrats are cracking," reports Mark Halperin, senior political analyst for MSNBC. "On both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue, there is a realization that Nancy Pelosi's hold on the speakership is in true jeopardy; that losing control of the Senate is not out of the question; and that time, once the Democrats' best friend, is now their mortal enemy."
Gloomy Democrats note that their poll numbers have slipped so badly that Republicans could win the 10 seats they need to recapture the Senate. "I think there is definitely a chance" of losing the Senate, Democratic strategist Gary Nordlinger told the Wall Street Journal. "I wouldn't call it a probability, but there is certainly a chance."
The data that most concern Democrats are the generic ballot numbers, where voters express a preference for one party or another in House races. A new Bloomberg poll gives Republicans a 48% to 40% lead among likely voters, a far bigger margin than the GOP enjoyed just before the 1994 landslide that gave Republicans both houses of Congress. Even in California, which Barack Obama carried by 22 points, Democrats are struggling. A new Field Poll finds Democrats with only a three-point edge in the generic ballot question. That suggests Democrats could end up losing two or three seats in one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. "If things remain that close in California, it will be a bloodbath in the rest of the country," a leading Democratic consultant told me.
A Politico poll published today shows Bad news for Obama in 2012 - Obama would lose his re-election bid against a generic Republican candidate by 5 points, 37-42. Obama does not break 40 percent against other likely contenders, some of whom are known by very few voters. His numbers are stuck in the high 30s against Mitt Romney (the
closest contender, who’s already within 4 points of Obama) Pawlenty,Huckabee and Barbour...If these contenders become actual candidates, they still have a chance to shape their image and tell the story they want voters to hear, driving up their support; by contrast, after four years in office, perceptions of and support for Obama will be pretty well fixed.
Gloomy Democrats note that their poll numbers have slipped so badly that Republicans could win the 10 seats they need to recapture the Senate. "I think there is definitely a chance" of losing the Senate, Democratic strategist Gary Nordlinger told the Wall Street Journal. "I wouldn't call it a probability, but there is certainly a chance."
The data that most concern Democrats are the generic ballot numbers, where voters express a preference for one party or another in House races. A new Bloomberg poll gives Republicans a 48% to 40% lead among likely voters, a far bigger margin than the GOP enjoyed just before the 1994 landslide that gave Republicans both houses of Congress. Even in California, which Barack Obama carried by 22 points, Democrats are struggling. A new Field Poll finds Democrats with only a three-point edge in the generic ballot question. That suggests Democrats could end up losing two or three seats in one of the most gerrymandered states in the country. "If things remain that close in California, it will be a bloodbath in the rest of the country," a leading Democratic consultant told me.
A Politico poll published today shows Bad news for Obama in 2012 - Obama would lose his re-election bid against a generic Republican candidate by 5 points, 37-42. Obama does not break 40 percent against other likely contenders, some of whom are known by very few voters. His numbers are stuck in the high 30s against Mitt Romney (the
closest contender, who’s already within 4 points of Obama) Pawlenty,Huckabee and Barbour...If these contenders become actual candidates, they still have a chance to shape their image and tell the story they want voters to hear, driving up their support; by contrast, after four years in office, perceptions of and support for Obama will be pretty well fixed.
