The Armageddon Scenario: Israel and the Threat of Nuclear Terrorism
"As things stand today, and unless virtually irrefutable and immediate
evidence exists to the contrary, Israel should adopt a declared retaliatory
policy which holds Iran and/or al-Qaeda responsible for any nuclear attack,
regardless of who may or may not have carried it out.
If the source of a terrorist nuclear attack against Israel is unknown, or if
it is known to originate with al-Qaeda or Iran, Israel should make it clear
that its response will be unlimited and include not just major population
centers, but all sites of value, including those of major symbolic
importance for the Muslim world".
evidence exists to the contrary, Israel should adopt a declared retaliatory
policy which holds Iran and/or al-Qaeda responsible for any nuclear attack,
regardless of who may or may not have carried it out.
If the source of a terrorist nuclear attack against Israel is unknown, or if
it is known to originate with al-Qaeda or Iran, Israel should make it clear
that its response will be unlimited and include not just major population
centers, but all sites of value, including those of major symbolic
importance for the Muslim world".
(Chuck Freilich-BESA Center Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 84).For the past 15 years, Israel's focus on the Iranian nuclear program has been nearly all-encompassing, eclipsing virtually all other threats. A nuclear Iran would undoubtedly pose a severe threat to Israel, indeed, possibly even an existential one. The preoccupation with Iran, however, may have distracted Israel from another threat, one which may be no less likely and actually far more difficult to counter: nuclear terrorism.
Experts and policymakers are divided on the probability of nuclear terrorism, much as they are on the likelihood of Iran using nuclear weapons, should it succeed in attaining them. On one issue, however, they are in agreement; the threat of nuclear terrorism is not just a mirage. The risk is real, and cannot be discounted or wished away.
This new BESA Center study by Israel’s former deputy national security advisor (now a senior fellow at the Harvard University Kennedy School) focuses on the threat of nuclear terrorism facing Israel. It begins with an overview of the nature of the threat, before turning to the potential perpetrators of nuclear terrorism against Israel, possible delivery mechanisms and targets, and the specific scenarios under which the threat to Israel might materialize. The study then presents possible policy options for Israel to deal with the threat, both unilaterally and in conjunction with the United States.
Among Freilich’s policy recommendations: Israel should adopt and further elucidate a staunch and uncompromising deterrent policy, such as the “retaliate first, no questions asked” approach outlined in the paper; intensive study must be devoted by governmental agencies, in cooperation
with outside experts around the world, to examine potential values of importance to al-Qaeda and other nihilist organizations, as the basis for deterrence, since Israel cannot simply allow itself to consider them un-deterrable; and, the threat of nuclear terrorism should become an
integral part of Israel’s strategic dialogue with the US in a variety of forms.
Experts and policymakers are divided on the probability of nuclear terrorism, much as they are on the likelihood of Iran using nuclear weapons, should it succeed in attaining them. On one issue, however, they are in agreement; the threat of nuclear terrorism is not just a mirage. The risk is real, and cannot be discounted or wished away.
This new BESA Center study by Israel’s former deputy national security advisor (now a senior fellow at the Harvard University Kennedy School) focuses on the threat of nuclear terrorism facing Israel. It begins with an overview of the nature of the threat, before turning to the potential perpetrators of nuclear terrorism against Israel, possible delivery mechanisms and targets, and the specific scenarios under which the threat to Israel might materialize. The study then presents possible policy options for Israel to deal with the threat, both unilaterally and in conjunction with the United States.
Among Freilich’s policy recommendations: Israel should adopt and further elucidate a staunch and uncompromising deterrent policy, such as the “retaliate first, no questions asked” approach outlined in the paper; intensive study must be devoted by governmental agencies, in cooperation
with outside experts around the world, to examine potential values of importance to al-Qaeda and other nihilist organizations, as the basis for deterrence, since Israel cannot simply allow itself to consider them un-deterrable; and, the threat of nuclear terrorism should become an
integral part of Israel’s strategic dialogue with the US in a variety of forms.