(Politico).President Obama plans on hosting 25 to 30 countries to discuss securing nuclear arsenals. But one key question remains unanswered: Will he invite Israel?
President Barack Obama’s call for a nuclear security summit next March could end up turning an uncomfortable spotlight on at least one nation — Israel – and further strain the administration’s relations with the Jewish state, analysts said.
Obama told leaders at the G-8 summit in July that he planned to ask the heads of 25 to 30 countries to come to Washington to discuss securing nuclear stockpiles. The final invites haven’t gone out yet, and one key question for Obama is this: does he ask Israel to attend, or not?
There’s no good choice.
Invite Israel, and open its leaders up to questions about the country’s widely reported nuclear weapons program – which the Israelis have long refused to discuss.
But leave out Israel, and the Middle Eastern nations who would seem to be a necessity at any summit discussing nuclear security would feel compelled to point to Israel’s reported efforts as a source of instability in the region.
“I see this as one giant root canal
which is going to be really painful for everybody who shows up—and for everybody who doesn’t,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who worked on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations under four presidents.
“Even if you try to define the summit agenda to be nuclear terrorism and nuclear security, the people you do invite are going to bring Israel to the table, figuratively speaking, anyway,” Miller said. “They’re going to need to think this through extremely carefully.”
The summit, set for March 9 and 10, is aimed at combating nuclear terrorism, which Obama has called the “most immediate and extreme threat to global security.”
“The March summit...will incorporate discussion of a wide range of mechanisms, structures, and institutions as they relate to nuclear security,” said a senior White House official, who asked not to be named. The official said the invites were “still in the works” and that it was too early to announce which countries to attend.
Most analysts interviewed for this story said they do not expect Israel to be invited to the meeting, but they expect it to enter into the discussions one way or the other.
“It’s very complicated,” said Elliot Abrams, a National Security Council aide under President George W. Bush. “Israel is not a declared nuclear power, yet the Arab states will all have something to say about Israel’s alleged nuclear program….Israel doesn’t want any international discussion of its alleged nuclear program. It’s extremely sensitive to the notion of a Middle East nuclear free zone.”
Experts said some Arab countries probably won’t attend if Israel is invited. The largely Muslim states most likely to be invited to next March’s summit are Egypt, Turkey
and the United Arab Emirates, the analysts said. The embassies of those countries, and of Israel, did not respond to requests for comment for this article.
“I’d think—if at all—Israel would be willing to take part in such a meeting only if there was an understanding between us and the [Obama] administration about what things are going to be on the table,” said Zaki Shalom, a professor of strategic studies at Israel’s Ben Gurion University.
President Barack Obama’s call for a nuclear security summit next March could end up turning an uncomfortable spotlight on at least one nation — Israel – and further strain the administration’s relations with the Jewish state, analysts said.
Obama told leaders at the G-8 summit in July that he planned to ask the heads of 25 to 30 countries to come to Washington to discuss securing nuclear stockpiles. The final invites haven’t gone out yet, and one key question for Obama is this: does he ask Israel to attend, or not?
There’s no good choice.
Invite Israel, and open its leaders up to questions about the country’s widely reported nuclear weapons program – which the Israelis have long refused to discuss.
But leave out Israel, and the Middle Eastern nations who would seem to be a necessity at any summit discussing nuclear security would feel compelled to point to Israel’s reported efforts as a source of instability in the region.
“I see this as one giant root canal
which is going to be really painful for everybody who shows up—and for everybody who doesn’t,” said Aaron David Miller, a former State Department official who worked on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations under four presidents.
“Even if you try to define the summit agenda to be nuclear terrorism and nuclear security, the people you do invite are going to bring Israel to the table, figuratively speaking, anyway,” Miller said. “They’re going to need to think this through extremely carefully.”
The summit, set for March 9 and 10, is aimed at combating nuclear terrorism, which Obama has called the “most immediate and extreme threat to global security.”
“The March summit...will incorporate discussion of a wide range of mechanisms, structures, and institutions as they relate to nuclear security,” said a senior White House official, who asked not to be named. The official said the invites were “still in the works” and that it was too early to announce which countries to attend.
Most analysts interviewed for this story said they do not expect Israel to be invited to the meeting, but they expect it to enter into the discussions one way or the other.
“It’s very complicated,” said Elliot Abrams, a National Security Council aide under President George W. Bush. “Israel is not a declared nuclear power, yet the Arab states will all have something to say about Israel’s alleged nuclear program….Israel doesn’t want any international discussion of its alleged nuclear program. It’s extremely sensitive to the notion of a Middle East nuclear free zone.”
Experts said some Arab countries probably won’t attend if Israel is invited. The largely Muslim states most likely to be invited to next March’s summit are Egypt, Turkey
and the United Arab Emirates, the analysts said. The embassies of those countries, and of Israel, did not respond to requests for comment for this article.
“I’d think—if at all—Israel would be willing to take part in such a meeting only if there was an understanding between us and the [Obama] administration about what things are going to be on the table,” said Zaki Shalom, a professor of strategic studies at Israel’s Ben Gurion University.