(Haaretz).All the reports emanating from Washington indicate that Obama will not issue a detailed peace plan any time soon. Netanyahu's fear - that Washington will demand that he withdraw from all the territories and divide Jerusalem - will not become reality in the near future. The administration distinguishes between "substance" and "process" and will now focus solely on creating the framework for negotiations and also probably on setting target dates for the parties involved. There is no reason for Netanyahu and his coalition to lose any sleep over that.
Netanyahu seemingly won this round, then, but that is no cause for joy on his part. Even the most optimistic assessment, even the most flattering to Netanyahu, shows that Obama has emerged from the arm-wrestling contest with a slight advantage. First of all, in an effort to get Obama off his back, Netanyahu had to accept the idea of "two states for two nations." Second, Obama dismissed Netanyahu's call that stopping Iran's nuclear project must precede any political move. Third, and most important, Netanyahu failed to establish relations of trust and intimacy with the president and the administration. He has no tacit agreement on policy. And it's not that he doesn't want it: Netanyahu's bureau is envious of the total coordination that existed between Ehud Olmert and the Bush administration.
The reports that emerged from Obama's meeting with America's Jewish leaders did not refer to even a single good word said by the president about the prime minister. Not even praise for Netanyahu's speech at Bar-Ilan University. Obama distinguishes between Israel and its prime minister. Nor did the leaders of the Jewish community come to praise Netanyahu and regale the president with his exploits. At the end of the day, Israel needs the United States far more than vice versa.
Prime minister Yitzhak Shamir also heroically resisted pressure on the settlements from president Bush, the elder, and from his secretary of state, James Baker, until missiles began to rain on Tel Aviv in the first Gulf War. America came to Israel's defense, but it exacted the price when it dragged Shamir to the 1991 Madrid Conference and helped topple him from power.
Still, Obama seems to have gone too far in his demand for a total settlement freeze, and he will have to swallow at least some of his pride. The moment America declared Israel's security a sacrosanct value, Netanyahu knew he would not face a threat of delays in the supply of spare parts for the air force, a tactic the previous administration resorted to, along with demanding the dismissal of top defense officials, when it wanted to punish Israel for selling arms to China. Netanyahu was also proven right in his belief that the Saudis would not come up with any generous gestures and that the Palestinians' refusal to renew the negotiations would play into his hands. There is nothing like Arab rejectionism to take the heat off Israel.
Obama made a mistake in ignoring Israeli public opinion. In so doing, he allowed Netanyahu to cobble together a political consensus against a settlement freeze, and to portray him as an unfriendly president who is toadying to the Arabs.
