(Imra).If the Kadima Party gets more votes that Likud there is every reason to believe that President Shimon Peres will give Livni the first shot at forming a government regardless of the relative sizes of the so-called "right wing" and "left wing" blocs.
And should she get that chance, there is every reason to believe that she will be able to form a government including almost all of the parties in the so-called "right wing" bloc.
That's why it is so critical that Likud gets more votes than Kadima.
Shas and Yahadut Hatorah would be certain to join with Livni if their sectoral interests are met.
By the same token, it doesn't require much imagination (or memory) to come up with the coalition principles that would enable Avigdor Lieberman to join the Kadima lead coalition along with Labor.
Sure, Uzi Landau might even resign from Yisrael Beiteinu in protest, but that would just mean one less contender in the party for ministerial portfolios and Knesset committee chairmanships.
But what's so bad about a Livni lead coalition in which Lieberman serves as watchdog in the inner cabinet backed up by a majority in the Knesset of a so-called "right wing" bloc?
Anyone who takes the trouble to actually read Avigdor Lieberman's policy recommendations should know that Lieberman would be anything but a "watchdog". Let's not forget that this is a man who thinks that it would be fantastic if the Jordanian army was deployed outside of Kfar Sava and Egyptian troops were stationed next to Ashkelon. As for "secure borders", his dream is to carve out from the Jewish State those areas that have large concentrations of Israeli Arabs. The resulting lines would make the pre-'67 "Auschwitz borders" magnitudes safer by comparison.
Even if Lieberman genuinely wanted to serve as "watchdog" he wouldn't be able to. After all, the history of the Israeli diplomatic process is an ongoing story of initiatives and negotiations in which even most members of the inner cabinet are clueless as to what is really going on until it is too late to correct the situation without subjecting Israel to heavy costs.
A Livni lead coalition will seek out a deal to leave the Golan, pull out of the Jordan Valley and divide Jerusalem.
She doesn't deny this.
In fact, she argues that it is better for Israel to take the initiative so as to insure Israel gets the best possible arrangements for implementing what she sees as inevitable developments.
The scenario is clear.
Almost everyone in the cabinet would be out of the loop until details were hammered out and arrangements made for international pressure that would threaten Israel with catastrophic results should the cabinet or Knesset dare to reject the initiative.
That's why it is so critical that Likud gets more votes than Kadima..
Some Israelis are treating the elections as if the outcome only impacts the personalities involved.
As if the defeat of Netanyahu might be no more than him getting what he has coming to him because of what they see as tactical and other errors he made during the elections or in the past.
But this election is not some kind of television game show.
It's a real election.
And should Likud lose to Kadima, we will all suffer the consequences.
