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Saturday, December 27, 2008

Netanyahu/Likud on rise to Victory either way

(Yossi Verter-Haaretz)......"In case of failure, Barak will not be able to hide behind the prime minister, who is nearing the end of his political road, nor will he be able to point an accusing finger at a pilot chief-of-staff or an untrained army. The failure will be all his.

In case of success, no one will be able to take it away from him. If, by the end of the operation, the general sentiment will be that Israel has once again failed to meet its goals, if rockets continue to land and Gilad Shalit remain captive, the public will turn their anger at Barak and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and power will drop like a ripe fruit into Benjamin Netanyahu's lap.

But if Hamas is beaten and Israel receives some peace under favorable terms, Labor and Barak may gain force, primarily at the expense of Kadima and Livni.

The political deck of cards has been reshuffled. The "negative" campaigns have been put on ice. All that has attracted our attention thus far - the lists, the crossovers, the new faces - has been rendered irrelevant.

History teaches us that military campaigns which occur during election campaigns - such as Grapes of Wrath in 1996 or the intifada in 2001 - benefit the right wing more than any other camp. In any case, it's too early for guesses as to how this will all pan out".