.....But, despite predictions of doom and gloom, is an Obama-Bibi blowup inevitable?
Not necessarily.
Though the idea that the new president will prioritize the comatose peace process and seek to bludgeon Netanyahu into submission may be a fantasy of some of Obama's fans on the Jewish left, it disregards his innate pragmatism.
Clinton committed himself, without reservation, to the concept that Yasser Arafat was a peacemaker rather than a two-faced terrorist. On the other hand, Obama arrives in the Oval Office with no such loyalty to the powerless Palestinian Authority head Mahmoud Abbas. To suggest that rather than concentrate on more-urgent issues, Obama would risk any of his hard-won political capital on such a slender reed as Abbas is absurd.
Even if we assume, for the sake of argument, that Obama and his people are inherently hostile to Netanyahu, why would it make sense for the next president to try to force Israel into a corner when the prospects for peace are so bleak? With the Palestinians hopelessly split between the weak Abbas and his Hamas rivals who control Gaza, there is no way that any Israeli government, even the current Kadima-led coalition that is desperate to achieve an agreement, could do so.
After all, the reason why Bibi may be headed back to the prime ministership is the failure, not only of the Oslo process, but also of Kadima's unilateral withdrawal concept.
Ariel Sharon left the Likud and formed the centrist Kadima Party in 2005 because Netanyahu and his followers wouldn't support the withdrawal from Gaza. His attempt to end the old left-right split in Israeli politics was initially successful, but the the pullout was a disaster. It led directly to the creation of a Hamasistan that bombarded Israeli towns like Sederot. A similar retreat in the West Bank under the current circumstances is unthinkable. This failure of unilateralism has left many Israelis looking back to Likud for leadership.
There may be disagreements between Obama and Netanyahu, but the top foreign-policy item in the Middle East, outside of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is not the dead-in-the-water talks with the Palestinians, but something on which Obama and Netanyahu may well agree: the threat from Iran's nuclear weapons program.
While the Republicans made much of candidate Obama's ill-considered offer of talks with Iran, Obama also pledged never to allow the Iranians to achieve nuclear capability. If Obama doesn't keep that promise, he will have far-bigger problems in the region than not liking Netanyahu.
A chastened Bibi -- who won't want a repeat of his difficulties with Clinton -- and Obama will both have good domestic political reasons to avoid unnecessary conflicts with each other....
